Clearly Steve Jobs and the JesusPhones is the ultimate name for a
band.
We've had mobile phones in our lives for quite awhile now. First they
were enormous, and only tradesmen had them. Then they started to get
small, really small. So small you couldn't use them. And then they got
bigger again: now swelling with countless features. Torches, cameras,
pedometers. Some of the features stayed, but not many. Next was email,
and that's been pretty popular. The Internet made its way onto our
phones as well, but like video calls didn't really go anywhere.
This Friday the iPhone will launch in Australia. And predictably
people are going crazy. When was the last time you knew the launch
date of a mobile phone ahead of time? Sure, most of the hype is
because it's Apple and everyone loves Apple and isn't it so gorgeous
and stylish and Oh My God I've just got to have one. Deep breath. But
is there something else going on here?
The core function of a mobile phone is making phone calls. Well,
yeah. But there have been countless other features rammmed into
them. Haven't some of these taken off as well? Yes. There is one that
is on every phone in Australia, most of the phones in the world and
used by the overwhelming majority of mobile owners; in some
demographics more than phone calls: SMS. But SMS is just a very
limited single-person to single-person version of online chat. AOL
first released Instant Messenger back in 1997 and it's been huge ever
since. IM, with presence, blocking, buddy lists, group chat, location
mobility is a far richer chat experience than SMS. So why don't you,
yes, you reading this post, have an IM client pre-installed on your
phone? Why hasn't SMS gone the way of SIM card addressbooks (remember
those?) and been completely replaced by IM?
Firstly though, why is that an interesting question? As I said, we've
been carrying mobile phones for a long time. And in that time phones
have progressively become more and more powerful. Sure, they've lagged
in the power stakes behind standard computers, but I think you'd be
surprised by how little. The original iPhone was equivalent at release
to a four year old Mac laptop. Four years! I was writing interesting
software (including a chat system) on 18 year old Macs! So clearly
phones are powerful enough. How come then, given that we have these
mini-computers with us more than our real computers there aren't
interesting applications for them? How come it's still phone calls and
SMS? This is expecially frustrating as these powerful devices have
permanent connections to the Internet, everywhere! Something I could
only dream of when I was first writing software 15 years ago!
People have tried. Shrinkwrapped application developers, vertical
integrators, shareware developers have all tried to make a living
writing software for phones. And one by one they've given up. And
after much thinking the industry as a whole has come up with a batch
of reasons why there has been no success. And a lot these reasons boil
down to there is no killer app. There isn't one thing that people want
to do with their phones other than make calls or send texts. And I
bought that line too. Until I thought of SMS and IM.
So why no IM? Well firstly, you are not Nokia's or Ericsson's
customer. You are their product. Telstra is their customer and you are
being delivered to Telstra so Telstra will buy mobile network gear off
Nokia. Interesting. It may not be true any longer, but Nokia used to
make more off that gear than their phones. The phones were a
loss-leader to drive sales of equipment.
Why the 160 character limit on SMS? Because SMS messages are squeezed
into a gap in the control sequences that phones exchange with the
towers to remain connected to the network. In other words, SMS
messages are sent anyway, all the time, even if you haven't put
anything in them. They are just part of the network! So why do the
telcos charge 25c per message? Because they can. Oligopolies are cute
like that.
Imagine how many text messages are sent every day. Think about how
much is charged per-text. All of that income is pure profit for
Telstra and the other telcos. That is an enormous, uncontaminated by
overheads revenue stream. That kind of revenue is addictive. And here
is the crux of the problem with mobile phones: the telcos became
addicted to their existing revenue streams and then, with the handset
manufacturers as their willing accomplices, set to work on completely
controlling and stifling mobile phones as a platform.
Writing applications for phones is incredibly difficult. I don't want
to go into the problems here but the two main issues are the half a
dozen different platforms with inconsistent implementations of the
same platform across devices and end-user distribution and
installation are essentially impossible. This situation did not happen
by accident though. The telcos strongly encouraged this situation to
emerge. Why? Because they are terrified of just becoming a utility
that can only charge for data flowing down the pipe. It may be too
late, but this was a very short-sighted fear.
Apple and the iPhone are changing this world. Not because Apple are
out to save the world, not because they only care about the user
experience, not because their phone is pretty. Nope, that's all
hype. The iPhone changes things because for the first time, you the
phone buyer are actually the customer of the handset
manufacturer. Apple is not trying to sell network equipment, Apple is
trying to sell phones. And they decided that to sell phones the phone
has got to have a great browser. And the ability to install other
applications. And somewhere to buy those apps from.
You are buying the iPhone and you're liking it. Or you're not buying
it, but those particular features sound pretty good. Why can't my
Nokia have those? And pretty soon the telco's worst fear is realised:
they are just a pipe through which we ship packets. And I can
guarantee when that happens that 160 characters worth of IM
conversation will cost a lot less than 25 cents. Try 0.03
cents. That's 833 times less! At today's rate, no demand discount
applied!
So, relegated from giants of the economy to the likes of water and
sewage for the telcos. But, it didn't have to be this way. As well as
providing the network, telcos had something else: a billing
relationship with the consumer.
What if when browsing Amazon on your phone when you bought something
you didn't have to enter any credit card details? Instead the web site
communicated directly with your phone, used a rolling key from there
to sign the invoice and then billed it straight to your phone bill?
Gee, sounds pretty convenient to me. And a hell of a lot more secure
than handing out credit card details. This can only work with phones,
and telcos have only a short window remaining to make this happen
before something else comes along. They had their chance to replace
the credit card companies. But because of their addiction to their
immediate (but ultimately doomed) revenues, their willingness to screw
their customers and stifle an entire world of technology for almost
two decades they appear to have done themselves out of a future.
I, for one, shall not mourn their passing. And do not mourn for Nokia
either. Brainless henchman is not a noble calling.